1. In fixing the rates of a public utility for a series of past
years, it is contrary to due process to adopt the gross income and
operating expenses of the first year as an exclusive standard or
test for the period, and to ignore unimpeached evidence of the
gross income and operating expenses of later years. To prefer
forecast to experience in such cases is arbitrary. P.
294 U. S.
81.
2. A prediction, mere guesswork, that lower rates prescribed for
a public utility will ultimately increase its profits by increasing
its business cannot atone for present confiscation. P.
294 U. S.
82.
3. Other questions presented in this case are disposed of by the
opinion in the case preceding.
128 Ohio St. 301, 191 N.E. 105, reversed.
Appeal from a judgment affirming an order of the Public
Utilities Commission which fixed rates of the Gas Company in the
City of Kenton, Ohio.
See ante, p.
294 U. S. 63.
Page 294 U. S. 80
MR. JUSTICE CARDOZO delivered the opinion of the Court.
The rates to be charged by the appellant in Kenton, Ohio, are
the subject matter of this controversy.
An ordinance adopted by the city council of Kenton on July 16,
1929, effective on August 16, prescribed a schedule of rates within
the city for a period of two years. The appellant, West Ohio Gas
Company, filed a complaint with the Public Utilities Commission,
maintaining its existing schedule for the time being and giving
bond as it had done in the Lima case (
ante, 294 U. S. 63), for
the return of the excess, if any. The commission fixed the value of
the property in Kenton for the purpose of a rate base at
$189,856.56. The company acquiesced in the valuation, which, for
the purpose of this review, must be accepted as correct.
Thereafter, on March 10, 1933, the commission made a final order
determining the ordinance schedule to be unjust and unreasonable,
and establishing a new schedule, which was to be effective during
the period of the ordinance (August 16, 1929, to August 16, 1931)
and a year and a half afterwards (
i.e., till February 16,
1933). Collections during the course of the proceeding in excess of
the new rates were to be refunded to consumers. A motion for a
rehearing having been denied, the company filed a petition in error
with the Supreme Court of Ohio, asserting that the order of the
commission was in contravention of the limitations of the
Fourteenth Amendment. The Supreme Court of Ohio affirmed, writing a
single opinion here and in the Lima case. 128 Ohio St. 301, 191
N.E. 105. An appeal to this Court followed.
The intention of the commission was to establish a schedule of
charges that would enable the appellant to receive a return of 6%
upon the value of the Kenton property. To accomplish that result,
there was need of
Page 294 U. S. 81
a net income of $11,391.39. As the result of mathematical
errors, the commission arrived at the conclusion that income in
that amount had been earned in 1929, the year chosen as a standard.
In fact, the rate of return for that year was only 4.92%, even if
all contested rulings in respect of points of law are assumed to be
correct.
Errors of computation such as these are far from exhausting the
list of defects in these proceedings. There are others more clearly
vital. To ascertain the gross income and the operating expenses,
the commission confined itself to the business in 1929, predicting
on that basis the income and expenses to be looked for in the years
to follow. Besides the figures for 1929, there was evidence, full
and unchallenged, as to the actual revenue and outlay for 1930 and
1931. The commission refused to give any heed to that evidence in
fixing the new rates. It did this in the face of a petition for
rehearing which sharply brought to its attention the effect of such
exclusion. If heed had been given to the later years, the return
for 1930 would have been seen to be 4.23%, and for 1931 only 3.68%,
all this, moreover, on the assumption that further error was not
committed in the classification or disallowance of operating
charges. If such error existed, the return would be even lower.
We think the adoption of a single year as an exclusive test or
standard imposed upon the company an arbitrary restriction in
contravention of the Fourteenth Amendment and of "the rudiments of
fair play" made necessary thereby.
West Ohio Gas Co. v. Public
Utilities Commission of Ohio (appeal No. 1),
ante, p.
294 U. S. 63;
Chicago, M. & St.P. Ry. Co. v. Polt, 232 U.
S. 165,
232 U. S. 168. The
earnings of the later years were exhibited in the record and told
their own tale as to the possibilities of profit. To shut one's
eyes to them altogether, to exclude them from the reckoning, is as
much
Page 294 U. S. 82
arbitrary action as to build a schedule upon guesswork with
evidence available. There are times, to be sure, when resort to
prophecy becomes inevitable in default of methods more precise. At
such times, "an honest and intelligent forecast of probable future
values, made upon a view of all the relevant circumstances"
(
Southwestern Bell Telephone Co. v. Public Service Commission
of Missouri, 262 U. S. 276,
262 U. S. 288;
Los Angeles Gas & Electric Corp. v. Railroad Commission of
California, 289 U. S. 287,
289 U. S.
311), is the only organon at hand, and hence the only
one to be employed in order to make the hearing fair. But prophecy,
however honest, is generally a poor substitute for experience.
"Estimates for tomorrow cannot ignore prices of today."
Southwestern Bell Telephone Co. v. Public Service Commission of
Missouri, supra at p.
262 U. S. 288. We have said of an attempt by a utility
to give prophecy the first place and experience the second that
"elaborate calculations which are at war with realities are of no
avail."
Lindheimer v. Illinois Bell Telephone Co.,
292 U. S. 151,
292 U. S. 164.
We say the same of a like attempt by officers of government
prescribing rates to be effective in years when experience has
spoken. A forecast gives us one rate. A survey gives another. To
prefer the forecast to the survey is an arbitrary judgment.
In the light of this conclusion, we find it needless to dwell
upon more particular objections affecting the classification and
disallowance of payments which, in the view of the appellant, are
charges upon the expenses of operation. For the most part, the
objections are similar to those considered in No. 212, decided
herewith. What has been said in that case will guide the commission
and the state court in the event of a rehearing.
We are not unmindful of the argument urged by counsel for the
commission that the effect of lower prices may be to swell the
volume of the business, and, by thus increasing
Page 294 U. S. 83
revenues, enhance the ultimate return. Upon the record as it
comes to us, this is guesswork, and no more. There has been no
attempt to measure the possible enhancement by appeal to the
experience of other companies similarly situated or by any other
line of proof. Present confiscation is not atoned for by merely
holding out the hope of a better life to come.
The decree is reversed, and the cause remanded for further
proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion.
Reversed.